THERE have been four major container rate spikes over the past six years, including one that’s now in full swing, wrote senior maritime reporter Greg Miller.

The first — the big one — was during the pandemic in 2021-2022. That was followed by the Red Sea crisis in late 2023 and 2024.

The next upswing, on a smaller scale and centred on the US, was in May-June 2025, amid the pause in US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.

The current spike derives from the Hormuz crisis, which has driven up bunker fuel pricing by around 60% since February, leading to emergency bunker surcharges and a looming jump in quarterly bunker adjustment factors that kick in on July 1.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index global composite rose another 9% in the week ending Friday versus the week before. It is at 2,985 points, its highest level since August 2024, during the Red Sea crisis. It is 2.2 times its level in late February, just before the Hormuz crisis.

A ship-by-ship analysis of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since May reveals an emerging dividing line drawn along the nationality of vessel owners: tankers controlled by Western and Middle East Gulf owners are systematically avoiding any confirmed use of Iranian-controlled lanes, while the small number of ships verified to have used those routes are overwhelmingly tied to Chinese owners or their trading networks, reported APAC editor Cichen Shen.

The analysis, based on data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence and Vortexa, indicates a clear pattern emerging: owners with close ties to the US appear to be shifting toward a safer southern corridor hugging the Omani coast — now under Washington’s covert military surveillance protection — while keeping their tracking systems switched off to obscure the details of each transit.

Of the 52 mainstream, non-shadow fleet* tankers identified heading east through the strait since the start of May, only nine were confirmed to have used Iranian-controlled lanes. The remaining 42 were classified as “unknown” because of AIS signal gaps and suppressed tracking.

How the Hormuz crisis changed the equation for shipping stocks

Shipping stocks have been on a bull run for the past year, massively outperforming the broader equity market. But the Hormuz crisis has changed the equation, slowing momentum, wrote senior maritime reporter Greg Miller.

To gauge performance, Lloyd’s List analysed 29 US-listed shipowners and Breakwave Advisors’ two exchange-traded funds, comparing them to a proxy of the broader market: the SPDR ETF that tracks the S&P 500.

Two time periods were examined: the Hormuz crisis period and the past year.

Non-Iranian Gulf traders increasingly rely on dark transits

Dark transits by vessels carrying non-Iranian cargo through the Strait of Hormuz have become the default mode of operation, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data, wrote senior reporter Ece Göksedef.

Ships not involved in Iranian trade — meaning they are not carrying cargo to or from Iran or of Iranian origin — have increasingly been switching off their Automatic Identification System signals during Hormuz transits since the start of the war.

In March, 33% of non Iran-linked vessels entering or exiting the Middle East Gulf went dark, disabling AIS and obscuring their location, flag and identity. The rate jumped to 60% in April and climbed further to 67% in May.

Quarter of mainstream tankers have exited Gulf but over 160 ships still marooned

Over 160 tankers engaged in non-sanctioned or non-shadow fleet* trades have now been marooned in the Middle East Gulf for more than 100 days following the onset of hostilities in late-February, reported markets editor Rob Willmington.

Meanwhile, a quarter of mainstream tankers that were present at the onset of the crisis have managed to leave the Middle East Gulf over the past three months.

While some shipowners have succeeded in withdrawing vessels from the area, the pace of departures has slowed dramatically. The security situation appears to have deteriorated further in the past week.

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