Houthis escalate threats against Saudi Arabia, raising risks to Red Sea shipping - analysis

The Iranian-backed Houthis have been escalating their threats and attacks on Saudi Arabia throughout July as US-Iran tensions grow. The latest rounds relate to tensions over the Houthi-run Sanaa airport and Iran’s attempts to fly into the airport. Riyadh has opposed the flights.

The Houthis then announced a blockade on Saudi shipping transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This would essentially mean that Iran is blockading both the Strait of Hormuz and the key strait to the Red Sea.

The Houthis announced overnight that they had “carried out a ‘qualitative military operation’ targeting two Saudi oil tankers, Encelia and Layla, after accusing the vessels of violating a maritime blockade decision in the Red Sea.” Both vessels are in the Red Sea according to relatively recent tracking data.

The Houthi statement said, “The operation was conducted using a number of ballistic and cruise missiles, along with drones, claiming that the attacks achieved ‘accurate hits’ on both vessels and caused fires to break out onboard.”

The Houthis said they forced 10 ships to turn around and that they will continue their blockade. They also said that any Saudi response will be met with major attacks.

The Houthis are clearly trying to be relevant. They want to join the conflict to help Iran. This potentially creates a new front in the conflict. The Houthis also congratulated Hamas on its election of a new leader.

Are the Houthis miscalculating?

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Arab News ran an important piece discussing the Houthis. The article by Gabriele Malvisi asked: Are they miscalculating? “Four Saudi crude tankers were forced to turn back on Tuesday after Yemen’s Houthi militia warned that any vessel calling at Saudi ports could be targeted ‘in any location within the operational reach of the Yemeni Armed Forces,’ marking a sharp escalation in their Red Sea campaign,” the report said.

The article noted how the Houthis had previously attacked Israeli-linked shipping. This happened after October 7, 2023, when the Houthis backed Hamas.

“Riyadh appears increasingly willing to defend its Red Sea lifelines,” the report read. “This latest escalation against Saudi Arabia is another example of the Houthis relying on military pressure and the threat of wider conflict as a negotiating tactic,” Mohammed Al-Basha, founder of US-based risk consultancy Basha Report, told Arab News.

The report mentions that the latest escalation with the Houthis is also linked to the Sanaa International Airport issue. There was an airstrike on the airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing earlier in July.

“The Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia, declared the de-escalation phase over, and responded by firing missiles and drones at Abha International Airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia, in the sharpest rupture of the truce since 2022,” Arab News said.

The Arab News report also quoted former senior CIA intelligence officer Norman Roule: “The US continues to maintain a robust naval force in the region, which is more than capable of working with Saudi partners to ensure the stability and frequent navigation in the Red Sea.”

“Fortunately, we have the support of European actors who are maintaining a naval force under the Operation Aspides architecture. They have announced that they will be bringing additional mine-sweeping capacity into the Red Sea, which would be useful,” he explained.

Houthis threatening the best alternative to blocked Strait of Hormuz

The Houthi threats matter. The Saudis have been investing in moving energy exports via the Red Sea due to the Strait of Hormuz being closed. This means that if the Houthis now try to block this second waterway, it could affect Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries and also therefore impact the world’s trade routes and oil and energy supplies.

The Arab News analysis said that “reports earlier this month noted that Saudi Arabia was considering expanding its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea coast so it could move more oil without crossing Hormuz.

That could make Riyadh more willing to adopt stronger defensive measures, including strikes on Houthi launch sites and maritime assets, than in earlier phases of the Yemen war, when its energy flows were less tied to Bab al-Mandab.”

The Houthis said that their leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi had “redefined the comprehensive nature of the conflict with Saudi Arabia, drawing a clearer picture of the equation that will govern the coming phase.”

The Houthi media outlet Al-Masirah noted that the Houthis were “moving past merely explaining the aggression and blockade and describing their humanitarian and economic impacts; the speech delivered a decisive stance: Yemen will no longer tolerate continued foreign control over its airports, ports, and resources. Any return to full-scale escalation will place vital Saudi interests and facilities directly within Yemen’s declared deterrence equation.”

The Houthis’s “blockade for blockade, airport for airport,” suggests a ladder of escalation with Riyadh. Energy infrastructure appears to be a target the Houthis are considering expanding their attacks to include, Al-Masirah said.